Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
